IN

III.AGRICULTURE

III.6. CROPPING CONDITIONS

III.6.1. CURRENT/FORECAST CROP CONDITIONS

It appears that, at least to some extent, the drought has broken. Some local agricultural specialists feel that rains so far this year are good. WFP staff reported that it expects that, with rains to date, total grain production will be in the range of 2.8-3.0 million MT. An International Data Collection Mission will be fielded June 15 to July 15, to take a more detailed national assessment of the crop and food supply situation.

In some villages visited, it was reported that many fields had not been irrigated to date, soil moisture was still good and there was adequate water in the streams which provide irrigation water.

III.6.2. RECENT CONDITIONS

III.6.2.1. Recent History of Agriculture

Some 80% of Afghanistan's population is of rural families, the majority of whom are dependent on a small cropland area for their survival. Anything that affects agriculture will have a direct impact on them.

Afghanistan at one point was largely self-sufficient in food production. However, more than 20 years of war and internal conflict, combined with the recent 3-4 years of drought, have decimated not only agricultural production, but also whatever support infrastructure that existed in many places. While some areas have suffered little direct impact, other areas are in precarious condition and urgently need assistance. For example, in some villages visited to assess the actual need for seed aid, some of the inhabitants were returning refugees who had nothing in terms of production inputs or financing. The villagers who had remained there had lost their crops and seed stocks through the drought. A typical example is one village which received spring wheat seed through ICARDA, and fertilizer through IFDC. As one member of the village Shurah (council) put it, "we prefer to plant in the fall because we produce more. But, as you can see, our fields were not planted in the fall because we had no seed and no money. We could not have planted in the spring either, as we had no seed and no money to buy it with". We were saved only be the seed brought to us by ICARDA".

A more detailed study of the background of the agricultural situation in Afghanistan is included in the Annex.

III.6.2.2. Impact of War and Drought on Plant Genetic Resources

As crops are lost to drought and seed stocks are used as food, genetic materials have been lost. This has probably had more of an impact on the landraces planted in rainfed areas than on the irrigated areas, as varieties released and recommended for irrigated areas (which provide some 90% of the wheat and food) have reportedly been based on imported genetic materials.

FAO (Martinez, discussions) reported that most rainfed areas also had some irrigated areas, and farmers tended to produce their seed on the higher-yielding irrigated areas. However, it has generally been reported that as the drought progressed, water supplies were inadequate to produce the "normal" crops under irrigation, and seed supplies dwindled, and in many cases were exhausted. Also, the massive movements of refugees caused loss of some local genetic materials, and returning refugees probably brought with them at least some replacement materials from "outside".

Detailed survey and collections of genetic materials should be conducted at this time, both to compare present materials with the previous collections stored in ICARDA and other places, identify changes in genetic materials due to use of imported materials used for seed, and to identify materials which were able to survive the drought.

III.6.2.3. Impact of War and Drought on Agricultural Productivity

Total crop production declined significantly, perhaps more due to the extended drought and the large percentage of the population that was forced into external and internal refugee status. Figures on actual crop yields were not generally available, but comparison of area planted and total production make it clear that yields declined significantly. Many rainfed crops were apparently failures, and shortages of water affected even irrigated crops.

This situation was exacerbated by the general lack of off-farm employment to provide income to purchase food. The combined result, in terms of rural income and living standards, was summed up by an FAO report as "abysmal".

III.6.2.4. Seed Situation and Farmer Financial Ability

Inputs and good cropping weather are required to maintain high productivity.

FAO (Martinez, e-mail, late April 2002) described Afghanistan's agriculture as "farming systems are very robust and though suffering many stresses as the result of conflict and drought are still able to produce and deliver seed of high quality….Farmers with either grain for seed exchange or cash are able and prepared procure seed of a better type than their own to replenish stocks. ….FAO's experience has been that they (seed growing farmers, and merchants) have experienced no difficulty in finding a ready market for their 'quality' seed and farmers prepared to pay cash for this".

Given years of stability and peace, adequate resources and inputs and support, this could be a correct assessment of the agricultural productivity situation. However, in its current state, there is, in many places, a shortage of inputs, cash, and local conditions to support a high level of productivity. Combined with the general and extended drought, the situation is one of significant decline in total production (thus, in productivity).

FAO itself reported: "Rural families are characterized by abysmally low income levels, not even adequate to ensure a minimum quality of life compatible with physical well-being (FAO, 2001). Drought and political instability have devastated Afghan agriculture, especially in rainfed areas. The drought affected almost every sector of farming-draft oxen, fertilizer use, sheep, goats, etc. Smallholders, especially in the "unfavored environments" of rainfed agriculture, "have lost all worldly possessions and are waiting for some miracle" (FAO).

There are pockets of relatively good conditions, but many areas and villages have experienced significant decline in production and supply of food.

III.6.2.5. Food Security

Despite the years of conflict, agricultural production was relatively high, in terms of needs. However, the drought exacerbated the situation, and added to the movement of refugees. The combination significantly reduced total production and well as productivity, and increased the dependence on food aid and imported food. A significant amount of food and food grains have been imported; these are readily available in a number of publications, and are therefore not reproduced here.

III.6.2.6. Institutional Development

Formal institutions, and their infrastructure and staff, have ceased to exist, during the extended 23-year period of conflict and lack of an effective government. Agricultural and seed infrastructure were among those that disappeared or ceased to function.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Animal Husbandry) of the Interim Government is trying to assess and prioritize needs, but is woefully short of funding to re-establish its institutional infrastructure. This will require considerable financial support from external sources, and an extended period of stability and strong government.

III.6.2.7. Private Sector

Past agricultural operations (other than farming production) were largely in the government sector. The one identified "formal sector" seed program was a government (so-called parastatal) seed corporation, which performed all operations-even quality control-internally.

Economic and political conditions have not been favorable for private sector investment and operations. Under these conditions, even the "emergency intervention" nature of the FAO seed program was not conducive to private-sector seed supply.

With the present need for major restructuring, there is a significant opportunity for Government to assume the role of creating favorable conditions for private-sector investment, and then encouraging the private sector to invest in seed supply and other agricultural areas which are production/market-oriented. This would not only free government funds for other needs, but would also create significant tax bases and allow private citizens to create employment opportunities and rural enterprises.