AFGHANISTAN SEED AND CROP IMPROVEMENT SITUATION

X. A MARKET ECONOMY-THE BASIC NEED

X.1. Current Situation

Land holdings are small, with little chance of increasing the cultivable area operated by the average family. With the current economic situation, adequate employment within the country does not exist. The average rural income (80% of the population is rural) is below the level necessary to maintain a healthy life.

X.2. Family Food and Land Requirements

At the best recently-reported annual production (1999), total national wheat production was 2.5 million tons, slightly over half (56%) of today's minimal needs. Per-capita consumption is reported as 180 kg/year. Each rural family (average 9 persons, reportedly) would require 1.62 mt of wheat per year. Average irrigated wheat yield, reported to be 1.13 mt/ha, means each family requires 1.44 ha (7.2 jeribs)of irrigated land for wheat to satisfy family needs. On a national basis, at 0.16 ha per capita to produce the needed wheat, some 4,000,000 ha would be needed for a population of 25,000,000. The total land area devoted to cereal production (wheat, rice, maize, barley) in 2000 (a drought year) was 2.38 million ha, and 2.77 million ha in 1998. The additional land is clearly not available. Even if it were available, the typical family apparently does not have the means to acquire or cultivate it.

X.3 THE NEED-INCREASED PER-CAPITA RURAL INCOME

Current production systems, cultural practices, and yield levels cannot meet the needs of the present population for either basic foodstuffs, or marketable goods adequate to generate the minimum required income and purchasing power. Further, a high rate of population growth is reported. To calculate possibly achievable minimum family income needs-in addition to food from own-grown crops-if $10/month/capita is allowed for additional nutritional needs, farming supplies, medical/ dental, etc., or $120/year/capita, for a family of 9 persons, an additional $1,080, (less than half of per-capita GDP, potential, at this stage) would be needed.

X.4. MARKET ECONOMY

To earn this extra income, a market economy must be created and must include the majority of farm families. The farm family must produce for the market, or be employed in the marketing of farm and/or other products. This would require:

Earning opportunity situated so as to permit employment while still living in the village, and
Either off-farm employment or on-farm production-for-market capability adequate to generate the required supplemental income.

This would require:

Industrialization (such as in Taiwan) by moving factories to rural areas, so people could live on the farm and still work in factories, and/or
Increasing farm productivity so family food needs are produced on less land, and then using excess land area to producing a high-value, low-volume crop which could be sold to a local market for export of the crop.

X.5. GENERATING INCREASED FARM FAMILY PRODUCTION INCOME

To enable rural families to produce basic family food needs plus production for the market would require:

Increased production/jerib of basic food crops so less land is required to produce family food needs.
Developing markets, and farmer production capability, of export-destined specialized crops which could be sold at prices high enough to generate the required family income from a small land area. This could include high-value spices such as saffron, or labor-intensive specialized seed such as hybrid tomato or hybrid petunia.

It may also require some family planning effort, to keep population growth within some sort of stable economic relationship to the available cropland.

X.6. ESTABLISHING A MARKET ECONOMY

To establish a "market economy" which enables farm families to produce for the market, will require:

Government to create and maintain conditions to attract production and marketing firms' programs to Afghanistan.
Setting up and maintaining systems and facilities to train/guide farmers in producing crops suitable for market, and to maintain a marketing network to reach many rural villages.

Afghanistan urgently needs to find/create export markets, to earn foreign exchange. Agriculture is most likely to re-establish export earnings, and involves the majority of the Afghan population (which needs increased income). Afghanistan has climatic conditions, irrigation, and isolated small farm areas that are ideal for producing high-value, low-volume commodities such as spices (saffron, for example) and hybrid specialty flower and vegetable seed (petunia and tomato, for example).

These would require bringing in foreign companies which process and market these commodities. Afghan farmers will be producers; developing an outside market requires investment by the "market" agencies in Afghanistan, so they can ensure that products meet their specifications. Attracting foreign investment in Afghanistan is the only way that Afghanistan will be able to develop high-value, low-volume production for export markets.

Afghanistan already has some of the conditions required to attract investment. Discussions, by a suitable specialist, should be held with international companies to learn their needs and potential for investment, and with Afghan officials to identify what can be done to attract investment which improves rural income. A "bonus" should not be offered to potential investors, to make an investment in Afghanistan before Afghan conditions are ripe for such an investment. This has been tried and failed, with losses for the sponsor, investor, and the country. And, one failure "scares off" later investors.